Here is my oil price forecast – Oil prices likely have peaked for the year barring a supply disruption and I expect global oil demand growth will help keep prices above $95/bbl until 2013.
Also of note is new complex refineries increasing the demand for heavy crudes and US tight oil plays will increase the supply of light sweet crudes, leading to narrower light-heavy crude differentials.
Robust oil demand growth is expected by 2013, increasing by 1-1.5 million b/d. The anticipated growth is being driven by Asian oil demand for transportation, petrochemical, and power sectors. Indonesia, China, Japan, and India account for a major share of Asian demand growth.