Breitling Oil and Gas Texas and California Morning Podcast #383

Forty years ago this month, OPEC slammed the door on oil exports to the U.S. That was the original inspiration for the push for U.S. energy independence. Today’s Syrian conflict is keeping the pressure on the U.S. to stay focused on building energy reserves. Thus, U.S. exploration and production companies are shedding assets abroad and deploying capital at home. Domestic crude production is at 25-year highs. In 2014, it’s expected to rise to 8.4 million barrels a day, from 7.8 million this year.  I think crude prices drift a bit lower from here as the Syrian threat has evaporated.  I also think it could drift to the mid-$90s, which is fair value. What puts a floor under that forecast is demand. Global demand for crude is rising 1% to 2% a year.

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